Thursday, 4 June 2009

D Day


I've just voted. A two mile queue and a three hour wait, but it was worth it ...
I jest of course; checking at some of the local Polling Stations earlier today the general consensus was summed up: 'very slow, almost full stop'. Turnout at the last Euro election was poor, but this could be even lower. What that may mean in terms of results is difficult to gauge.
Sometimes there's just too much choice (!). There are no less than thirteen Parties and an Independent on the ballot paper here in Scotland - although no space on the form for 'None of the Above' - and only six seats available.
Given the establishment Parties' current woes over expenses, will we see a massive protest vote? Less so in Scotland I think; traditional Labour supporters are more likely to stay at home other than vote for another party. My guess is that Labour may lose one MEP, and the Greens will be the party to benefit. (This exclusive prediction from the pundit who finished 1567th in Radio Scotland's Predictor competition).
Our friends down south have local elections too, so Labour is braced for a serious 'doing' on two fronts. It doesn't help much when your Communities Minister resigns the day before the election, either. That said, Labour did particularly badly last time round in the local government elections so there can't be an awful lot more to lose - can there? Given the turbulence of the last couple of weeks it seems inevitable that Labour will still lose an awful lot more council seats across the country. UK wide, it's being suggested that Labour could drop to fourth place overall, polling around 20% or even less. Should that happen - and it's far from impossible - Gordon Brown's position, already precarious, would become untenable.
We live in fascinating and very unpredictable political times. Will the BNP gain a Brussels seat? Will UKIP finish second? Will we see a Green resurgence? And, with open revolt surfacing within the Parliamentary Labour Party, (and that's before the election results) will Gordon Brown still be Prime Minister come next Tuesday morning?

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