Reflections on Glasgow East
Well what do you make of that? Apart from the bold Mr Salmond himself, who would have predicted that result? I always thought that the by-election would be close but I genuinely thought that a 13500 majority was just too much to overcome. Just shows you how wrong you can be.
So what happened? Well, firstly, let's take nothing away from the SNP. As I said last week their candidate is a very popular local councillor - increasing his majority at subsequent council elections - and he didn't put a foot wrong despite the constant media attention. There were some sneers about his quiet manner, his lack of pzazz and the fact that his Leader was constantly by his side. Whatever the detractors say, he was quietly effective and he chimed with local people. The voters knew what they were getting when they elected him.
Then there was the campaign itself. When you are on a high, as the SNP undoubtedly is, it's quite easy to get supporters out and working - the sense of excitement is there, you're enthusiastic and the adrenaline's there. The SNP had hundreds of willing volunteers available, and their presence on the streets was impressive. Come a General Election they would not be able to flood constituencies across the country, of course, but this was a remarkable achievement nonetheless.
So I don't think it's quite as simple as saying that Labour lost the election - the SNP had to go out and win it, and they did. They enthused people to work for them, they enthused voters to go out and vote for them - they deserved their victory.
As for Labour, where do you start? There's the suspicious (for some) circumstances of having to call a snap by-election in the first place, then your preferred candidate decides not to turn up for his selection meeting (more questions). You then have to quickly rewrite the rule-book to lever another candidate in - and only then can your campaign begin in earnest!
And that's against a backdrop of crippling fuel prices, high interest rates, food prices going through the roof and rising unemployment. You've just lost your leader in the Scottish Parliament, your chums at Westminster have supported (then belatedly rescinded) the abolition of the 10p tax band and, shortly after deciding against cutting back their own ample expenses. To top that, in the crucial last week of campaigning your government announces bold new plans to get claimants off welfare and back into work -and the by-election is in one of the poorest and unhealthiest constituencies in the country! Add to this potent cocktail the fact that this Labour government has become one of the most unpopular since records began, you begin to see that you might have a bit of a problem here ...
And yet despite all that, I thought Labour would hold on. Too big a majority, I thought, and turnout will be poor - it always is there. Well turnout was low, but those people who did choose to vote sent a very clear, if unpleasant, message to the Labour government, and it is simply not good enough to say 'we're listening - we share your pain'. Patronising words won't win the seat back or convince an increasingly sceptical and disillusioned public that Labour really cares about ordinary people anymore.
However I believe that there is absolutely nothing to be gained by ditching Gordon Brown, as some hysterical back-benchers are demanding - a change of leader will not change the Party's fortunes, and honestly - what ambitious Labour MP would want that job right now? No, if it wasn't clear before it should be crystal clear now - it's time to ditch the 'New' and to get back to real left-of-centre policies. That's what Labour is for
This week's pic is NOT George Foulkes and Eric Pickles enjoying a spot of rough and tumble for the cameras - it was taken at a community fun day at the Civil Service Playing Fields last Friday!
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